WHAT IF?

 

       Frood Lake                         Pencil Sketch  2005

What If?

January 2025

I’m sitting here thinking “what if” scenarios. What if, when Donald Trump is sworn in as president and he does as he said he would, impose a 25% tariff  on Canadian goods. A tariff of this magnitude on Canadian goods, as well as goods from other countries seeking to do business with the U.S., would be nothing short of catastrophic. The ripple effect could throw the world into a recession, even a depression. At the very least imports would rise in price, and materials penalized sold in the country of origin, would also rise in price. Domestic price increases would dampen consumers enthusiasm to purchase, leading to producers reducing overhead through employee attrition. A rise in unemployment would exacerbate the already existing problem, leading to an ever increasing spiral into the arms of disaster. 

Now I’m thinking, but is anyone else thinking?

A rise in unemployment would lead to many borrowing, increasing their household debt. Interest rates would rise. Good for those with no debt, and having money to invest. Bad news for people already in debt. Many could lose their homes, and those wishing to sell, would find a soft market for their homes.

America itself would not be spared the pain if Trump’s threats become a reality. Increased cost of imports would increase the average American’s cost of living. A trade war would be disastrous.

No doubt I would be thought, am thought, to be a bit silly thinking “what ifs”, as consensus reveals that most don’t believe that Trump will follow through on his threat, but what if?

Apparently, I've been told that we've down this path before, and the result some say resulted in the Great Depression. The Wikipedia link below explains what may happen if Trump proceeds with tariffs. We could be facing a change in world order..... 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot%E2%80%93Hawley_Tariff_Act

Used to be we could slough of our problems by stating that we live in interesting times, but, my opinion, we’re rapidly going beyond interesting, especially for the aged person(s).

Perhaps, it’s time to grow potatoes instead of flowers.

Just thinking…..